Before the foundations are laid

Shaul Arieli, Haaretz - 14/12/2009

The rationale behind the road map and Benjamin Netanyahu's "economic peace" is the Israeli demand that a Palestinian state be built before a final-status solution is discussed and implemented, or at least as negotiations are taking place. A well-established Palestinian Authority maintaining good government and enforcing law and order would calm Israelis' fears that violence will flare up again and that the rifles of the Palestinian police will be aimed at them, and would ensure their support for "painful concessions."

But such a welcome process - sponsored by the Quartet and with the involvement of the Americans, as represented by Gen. Keith Dayton - has a very low chance of getting anywhere, because of the reality on the ground created by Israel: the expansion of the settlement enterprise, the growth of illegal outposts and the powerlessness of the security authorities, the opposition of the settlers' leaders to the removal of roadblocks, and the prevention of Palestinians from using main roads close to Jewish settlements.

The challenge that IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi posed to the Palestinians, when he said, "The more you do, the less we'll do," was taken up enthusiastically. Over the last year, a number of battalions trained in Jordan by the Americans have taken over in the Jenin district, where there are no Israeli settlements, as well as in Nablus, Bethlehem and the outskirts of Hebron, all to the satisfaction of the Israel Defense Forces.

The removal of roadblocks in these areas, along with stepped-up economic activity by Israeli Arabs in the West Bank and Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad's plan to support small businesses with international aid, have prevented the Palestinian economy from completely shattering. For the first time since 2001, there has even been a slight improvement in its performance.

But in recent days it has emerged that several hundred Palestinian policemen who completed their training recently have been grounded in Jericho and have not been deployed to Ramallah as planned. That district, whose Jewish areas are part of the Binyamin local council, includes many unauthorized outposts and more than 90 roadblocks on roads leading out of Arab villages and at the entrances to Ramallah, and Palestinians are barred from traveling on Route 443, which connects the agricultural hinterland with Ramallah's urban center. In addition, there are two other roads for the exclusive use of Israelis. All this makes Palestinian economic traffic impossible, and does the same to the coordination necessary for the Palestinian police to move freely in the Palestinian areas.

Both the "economic peace" plan and Fayyad's program for the establishment of a Palestinian state require the Israeli government to take a number of immediate steps: remove the illegal outposts, as it has promised the Americans it will do; remove most of the roadblocks; and make the Jordan Valley and the Judean Desert a space for Palestinians to live again. In addition, roads must be opened to Palestinian traffic and corridors opened for the continuous use of Palestinian police.

These moves, along with permits for operating Palestinian enterprises in Area C and free access to markets abroad, including Israel, could bring about the desired economy and government on the Palestinian side. They would also block Fatah's and Hamas' criticism of Fayyad's cooperation with Dayton; some Fatah members fear a rise in Fayyad's prestige and Hamas deplores what it calls "Dayton's Palestinian army."

In the absence of such steps, and in view of the diplomatic deadlock, the building of the Palestinian state will come to a standstill even before its foundations have been laid. Israel cannot enjoy the best of all worlds. Palestinian security forces would rather fall into line with their opponents than take part in a hopeless process without a Palestinian state at its end. Investment from the outside, which is sensitive to political uncertainty, will diminish. Without it, the rapid economic growth will end and the idea of economic peace will be dead and buried.